Feb 26

Feb 26 [Archive]: Coronavirus Updates & Response Plan Template, Feb 2020

Here you will find the following resources:

Extrapolating the current “Coronavirus State of the Union” for the US
Emergency Preparedness / Response Plan Template
Coronavirus & The Workplace 1-Pager
News Feed & Emergency Preparedness Guide

Hey Y’all,

An Update on US Status of Coronavirus

We do not have hard data available to work with for the US - looking to other countries can help us estimate what will we find.
It’s likely that there are already hundreds of cases of the novel coronavirus in the US.
Coronavirus cases double every 7 days. That seems like not much - but at that exponential rate of increase, there will be 4,000 times as many cases in three months.
Slowing down the disease by working from home increases the doubling window and buys us time to find drugs and/or a vaccine. This saves real lives – maybe even your life, or a family member.
Increasing the doubling window from 7 days to 9 days (just two days) reduces the number of infected by 90%+ after four months.

The chart below takes the population of each country and the number of cases they have and asks, if this country was the size of the US, how many cases would they have?

Taking a conservative angle, we probably have hundreds of "known" cases in the US, taking a more aggressive angle means we have low single-digit thousands. These numbers would under-count the number of actual cases by at least 8x (if not 20x+) between the time delay to diagnosis and only sampling the actual data.

How many cases do you think we will need to have before we end up quarantined? When do you think that will be? For context, Italy placed Lombardy and Veneto under quarantine when they hit 150 cases.

I created this template for business leaders who need to generate a preparedness plan quickly.

If you would like to speak to your employer about Coronavirus, there is a great one-pager here.

I hope you find this information useful.

Warmly,

P.S. There is a good curated thread of recent news and preparedness information available at: https://www.itsjusttheflu.com/ & the latest official case data is available here: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/